Or, if you prefer, Elliot's prediction for the Republican Iowa Caucus.
In all seriousness though, I have to say, for as seemingly unpredictable the Republican side has been, things seem to be happening that one might have predicted early on, namely that Mitt Romney is probably going to be the Republican nominee for the presidency. Although I do think that Romney is more likely than not to win the nomination, I still don't think that Romney actually wins the caucus, even though he *is* leading in the Des Moines Register poll. I also am convinced that Ron Paul has no chance of winning the caucus either (Paul is showing in second place in the poll, but he's also showing real signs of weakening).
So if Ron Paul and Mitt Romney aren't going to win the caucus, who will? Enter former Pennsylvania senator Rick "man on dog" Santorum, who will stun political circles and win Iowa.
Final Score will be:
Santorum 25%
Romney 20%
Paul 18%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Everyone else 17%
I'm also going to predict that the top two candidates (whoever they are) can't even garner 50% of the vote.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Saturday, September 17, 2011
I'm back but...
Hey there, after another year of not posting, I'm back, however, I wanted to let you know that I've been having a real block when it comes to writing politics. I don't know why but I haven't really had my heart in commentary on the political scene. Maybe it's because I'm still depressed over the 2010 elections, maybe I'm sick of so many on the left who seem to want to be self-destructive (yes, I wholeheartedly back President Obama, and frankly, there have become very very few places where pragmatic progressives still remain, too many), or maybe it's because I just haven't felt that I have enough to say about what's happening.
Point being, while I'm going to start posting (probably semi-regularly), chances are most of it won't be very politically oriented, actually I'm pretty confident that none of it will be politically oriented for a while, you're probably going to see a few random thoughts about some movies, comics, and shows that I've watched or have been thinking about.
Point being, while I'm going to start posting (probably semi-regularly), chances are most of it won't be very politically oriented, actually I'm pretty confident that none of it will be politically oriented for a while, you're probably going to see a few random thoughts about some movies, comics, and shows that I've watched or have been thinking about.
Friday, September 3, 2010
I'm ALIVE!!!
After a really long hiatus, I've done some major updates to my race ratings and added a permanent predictions widget for both governor's races and the Senate (I may choose to do a House one, but I'm not completely comfortable with it, so I wouldn't count on it).
Monday, June 28, 2010
RIP Senator Byrd
Wow...
While I guess I'm not surprised by this, Byrd has been in really poor health for a while now, it's still really hard to fathom the Senate without Robert Byrd in it.
Senator Byrd started off as a member of the KKK, who eventually filibustered (with Strom Thurmond) the Civil Rights Act of 1965. Three years later, he voted for the Civil Rights Act of 1968, and since then has shown a deep regret of his past. For me though, the completion of the circle was when he endorsed Barack Obama for President, after he had lost the West Virginia primary by 2-1 against Hillary Clinton.
Ultimately, despite his checkered past, I think that Senator Byrd has ultimately been a strong force in the Senate (right up there with Teddy Kennedy), and the Democratic caucus and the Senate as a whole are that much worse off without him.
On the political side of things, I guess there's some confusion about how the law is supposed to work in this situation in West Virginia, but there seems to be a distinct possibility that Gov. Manchin will wait until Saturday to declare a vacancy and run for the seat himself in 2012.
While I guess I'm not surprised by this, Byrd has been in really poor health for a while now, it's still really hard to fathom the Senate without Robert Byrd in it.
Senator Byrd started off as a member of the KKK, who eventually filibustered (with Strom Thurmond) the Civil Rights Act of 1965. Three years later, he voted for the Civil Rights Act of 1968, and since then has shown a deep regret of his past. For me though, the completion of the circle was when he endorsed Barack Obama for President, after he had lost the West Virginia primary by 2-1 against Hillary Clinton.
Ultimately, despite his checkered past, I think that Senator Byrd has ultimately been a strong force in the Senate (right up there with Teddy Kennedy), and the Democratic caucus and the Senate as a whole are that much worse off without him.
On the political side of things, I guess there's some confusion about how the law is supposed to work in this situation in West Virginia, but there seems to be a distinct possibility that Gov. Manchin will wait until Saturday to declare a vacancy and run for the seat himself in 2012.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Political Break: Fullmetal Alchemist Discussion (For anime/manga nerds only)
(Weekly reminder: For readers who are so inclined, a small donation, given at the Donate link on the side of the site, would be greatly appreciated)
As I've said in my site statement, this blog is not completely dedicated to politics, and it occurs to me that I haven't had any non-political posts since the site founding. So, as a bit of an introduction to myself, you should know that I'm a huge anime and manga fan, and one of my favorite mangas, Fullmetal Alchemist, just released its final chapter. On the one hand, I think it was a solid end to a really strong story, but, like most endings, I still wasn't all that happy with it.
(THERE WILL BE SPOILERS FOR BOTH THE MANGA AND FIRST ANIME, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED)
Just so we're clear, from the standpoint of wrapping up the story, tying up the loose ends, and making sure there aren't any plot-holes remaining, Fullmetal Alchemist's final chapter (#108) was very good. I have two basic problems though, one is simply a fan-boy's typical "awwww, why does it have to be over already...?" pout (and what're you gonna do about that) but my other complaint is that, like too many endings, was just a little bit too "and they all lived happily ever after" for me (it's probably darker than most stories you'd see in the United States, but still...). Too many stories are perfectly willing to fall into the trap of letting the main characters win and live a happy life, which is what Fullmetal did. Yeah, there was a "cost" paid by Ed to bring his brother Al back from the Gate, but, like a lot of endings that try to pull this, the price Ed paid was ultimately not all that important to him, but for every other main character, they got their cake and ate it too (Mustang got his eye-sight back, Al got his body, Ed and Winry got hitched and had kids, the Ishbalans (I'm using this spelling, anyone who has problems problems, deal with it) got their land back, Scar got to work towards rebuilding Ishbal, hell arguably Hoenheim got what he probably wanted (he died with a smile) and they banished the evil Homunculus to get his just desserts in total isolation). This is why I preferred the ending to the first Fullmetal Alchemist anime (yes, yes, I'm aware that the manga came before the anime), the story didn't end on a totally triumphant note, yes Al got his body back and Ed and Al were ultimately reunited, but by circumstance, they both had to leave their world, and left several characters in simply a bad situation (the scene when Winry realizes that Ed wouldn't stay in Amestris was heartbreaking).
While I'm on the anime, the other thing that I had always preferred in it relative to the manga was the way the homunculi were portrayed. Now, don't get me wrong, I did like the way the manga portrayed some of the Homunculi (Pride, Greed, and Envy were excellently done) but for the most part, they weren't fleshed out that well. The manga had all of the homunculi simply being offshoots of the main antagonist (whose name is actually Homunculus, but also goes by the name Father), and even this character didn't have that much development, other than having a severe God complex about him. The homunculi in the first anime, by contrast, were born when there was a failed human transmutation (and also took on the form of said person). This allowed the anime to cast the homunculi in the light of possibly being human and wanting to shed that humanity... or maybe the other way around, and led to some very interesting interactions between the humunculi and the protagonists Ed and Al (the best of them was when Ed learned the truth about Envy).
With those things being said, I still loved the Fullmetal Alchemist manga, and its creator, Hiromu Arakawa, had an absolutely brilliant story filled with strong character development, well drawn characters and settings, an excellent story, and created a wonderful world in which the logic of it was always consistent. Arakawa has a lot to be proud of, and I'll miss seeing new chapters from her excellent series.
For any other fans, I'm curious how you see the story, feel free to discuss in the comments.
As I've said in my site statement, this blog is not completely dedicated to politics, and it occurs to me that I haven't had any non-political posts since the site founding. So, as a bit of an introduction to myself, you should know that I'm a huge anime and manga fan, and one of my favorite mangas, Fullmetal Alchemist, just released its final chapter. On the one hand, I think it was a solid end to a really strong story, but, like most endings, I still wasn't all that happy with it.
(THERE WILL BE SPOILERS FOR BOTH THE MANGA AND FIRST ANIME, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED)
Just so we're clear, from the standpoint of wrapping up the story, tying up the loose ends, and making sure there aren't any plot-holes remaining, Fullmetal Alchemist's final chapter (#108) was very good. I have two basic problems though, one is simply a fan-boy's typical "awwww, why does it have to be over already...?" pout (and what're you gonna do about that) but my other complaint is that, like too many endings, was just a little bit too "and they all lived happily ever after" for me (it's probably darker than most stories you'd see in the United States, but still...). Too many stories are perfectly willing to fall into the trap of letting the main characters win and live a happy life, which is what Fullmetal did. Yeah, there was a "cost" paid by Ed to bring his brother Al back from the Gate, but, like a lot of endings that try to pull this, the price Ed paid was ultimately not all that important to him, but for every other main character, they got their cake and ate it too (Mustang got his eye-sight back, Al got his body, Ed and Winry got hitched and had kids, the Ishbalans (I'm using this spelling, anyone who has problems problems, deal with it) got their land back, Scar got to work towards rebuilding Ishbal, hell arguably Hoenheim got what he probably wanted (he died with a smile) and they banished the evil Homunculus to get his just desserts in total isolation). This is why I preferred the ending to the first Fullmetal Alchemist anime (yes, yes, I'm aware that the manga came before the anime), the story didn't end on a totally triumphant note, yes Al got his body back and Ed and Al were ultimately reunited, but by circumstance, they both had to leave their world, and left several characters in simply a bad situation (the scene when Winry realizes that Ed wouldn't stay in Amestris was heartbreaking).
While I'm on the anime, the other thing that I had always preferred in it relative to the manga was the way the homunculi were portrayed. Now, don't get me wrong, I did like the way the manga portrayed some of the Homunculi (Pride, Greed, and Envy were excellently done) but for the most part, they weren't fleshed out that well. The manga had all of the homunculi simply being offshoots of the main antagonist (whose name is actually Homunculus, but also goes by the name Father), and even this character didn't have that much development, other than having a severe God complex about him. The homunculi in the first anime, by contrast, were born when there was a failed human transmutation (and also took on the form of said person). This allowed the anime to cast the homunculi in the light of possibly being human and wanting to shed that humanity... or maybe the other way around, and led to some very interesting interactions between the humunculi and the protagonists Ed and Al (the best of them was when Ed learned the truth about Envy).
With those things being said, I still loved the Fullmetal Alchemist manga, and its creator, Hiromu Arakawa, had an absolutely brilliant story filled with strong character development, well drawn characters and settings, an excellent story, and created a wonderful world in which the logic of it was always consistent. Arakawa has a lot to be proud of, and I'll miss seeing new chapters from her excellent series.
For any other fans, I'm curious how you see the story, feel free to discuss in the comments.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
For Progressives, an Arkansas Loss was Inevitable
Before starting this little rant, I'd like to say that as a progressive Democrat, I would've preferred that Lt. Gov. Bill Halter win his primary challenge to Sen. Blanche Lincoln (and, in fact, it was my prediction that Lincoln would lose the run-off). Having said that, the progressives who really think that Halter was going to be able to defeat Republican congressman John Boozman need a reality check, and should reflect a little on what happened here before getting so bummed out by the events of the Arkansas race.
This is Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas:
The first thing, that the Democratic establishment should have thrown Lincoln out the door for Halter ignores one simple truth: political parties, at their core, are incumbent protection rackets, period. This is not an ironclad rule that can never be broken, but those circumstances usually involve some pretty bad scandals (for example, the Republican Governor's Association (the RGA) actively endorsed Brian Sandoval against incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons, mostly because of how scandal plagued he was). The Democrats had no business supporting incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson in Louisiana's second district, and they should have been criticized heavily for it, as Jefferson was accused of and later convicted of bribery, but that was simply not the case for Lincoln. Political parties protect incumbents for good reason, they are the power-base of the party, without incumbent members in government, the party has no power (just look at the Green Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party, and many others) and if the party isn't going to go to the mat for its incumbents, then its incumbents will stop supporting the party, period. This isn't limited to the Democrats either, the Republicans support their incumbents as well, and Kos is, frankly, delusional if he thinks that any political party should abandon incumbents who aren't scandal-tainted (but for the record, it was pretty stupid of the White House aid to shoot his/her mouth off about the labor unions, though I suspect that he/she wasn't authorized by the White House to talk either).
On the second argument, electability, I'd find that view a lot more convincing if Bill Halter were either winning or were within range of John Boozman in polling, but the fact is, Boozman is beating Halter by double-digits too and there's no prize for only losing by 15 instead of losing by 20. To be clear, yes, I believe that Halter was more electable than Lincoln, but to pretend that Halter's chances of victory were really that much better than Lincoln's doesn't do progressives well in the credibility department.
On the final point, well, frankly, I know that Kos means well, but there's a case to be made that Lincoln's derivatives language isn't really that good an idea. Just because something sounds good on paper and looks like it's putting the screws to the banks and everything which is evil, doesn't mean that it actually is or that this has somehow created better policy. Frankly, it's even arguable that this was good politics for just the general election, as everyone hates the banks and appearing to be tough on them just looks good. In addition there was a point made by a regular commenter on Swing State Project who goes by DCCyclone which I'd like to bring to light:
DCCyclone's point is a good one, what if Halter had won the primary? Maybe there would have been a polling bounce for him, but I doubt he'd even get a lead in that situation (or even close to it) and he'd probably return to where he was, 10-15 points behind Boozman which is almost certainly what the final result would have been. If that would have happened (hypothetically), it could easily by Democratic operatives to argue "see, this is what happens when you primary incumbents, you lose seats, you're no better than the Club for Growth!" (not to say that their point would be all that good, but it'd be pretty easy to make it, and suddenly the progressive groups who supported the primary look stupid for being successful). And that's really the main point, a loss for the progressives who backed Halter was probably inevitable no matter what, whether it would've been now or in November is sort of beside the point.
Update: Or what Nate Silver said.
This is Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas:
The GOP establishment tries to nominate electable candidates, and gets sabotaged by the teabaggers. We're trying to nominate electable candidates, and we get sabotaged by the Democratic Party establishment. We won in Pennsylvania, lost in Arkansas. You can't win them all. But make no mistake -- we made the politically smart move.
Unfortunately, the smart political move lost. So say hello to Sen. John Boozman, the next senator from the great state of Arkansas. It's the political reality. No need to sugarcoat it.
How much do you think the Chamber of Commerce and its corporatist allies will spend on behalf of Blanche Lincoln through the fall? Zero. Suddenly, you're going to see Lincoln quite friendless
Those evil "out of state" unions and progressive groups sure won't lift a finger to help her. The only question is how much the DSCC wastes on the losing effort.
I've long since quit being impressed by moral victories. In this case, we forced Blanche to dramatically improve the financial reform bill, and it may be too late to strip out her derivatives reform language. And we delivered the kind of pain that no other incumbent wants to suffer. So congressional Democrats have two options -- they can either shape up and be spared primary pain (I'd be happy focusing solely on Joe Lieberman in 2012), or they can be Blanched
It's much easier to keep your job if you don't have to fight for it twice in a single year.
The first thing, that the Democratic establishment should have thrown Lincoln out the door for Halter ignores one simple truth: political parties, at their core, are incumbent protection rackets, period. This is not an ironclad rule that can never be broken, but those circumstances usually involve some pretty bad scandals (for example, the Republican Governor's Association (the RGA) actively endorsed Brian Sandoval against incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons, mostly because of how scandal plagued he was). The Democrats had no business supporting incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson in Louisiana's second district, and they should have been criticized heavily for it, as Jefferson was accused of and later convicted of bribery, but that was simply not the case for Lincoln. Political parties protect incumbents for good reason, they are the power-base of the party, without incumbent members in government, the party has no power (just look at the Green Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party, and many others) and if the party isn't going to go to the mat for its incumbents, then its incumbents will stop supporting the party, period. This isn't limited to the Democrats either, the Republicans support their incumbents as well, and Kos is, frankly, delusional if he thinks that any political party should abandon incumbents who aren't scandal-tainted (but for the record, it was pretty stupid of the White House aid to shoot his/her mouth off about the labor unions, though I suspect that he/she wasn't authorized by the White House to talk either).
On the second argument, electability, I'd find that view a lot more convincing if Bill Halter were either winning or were within range of John Boozman in polling, but the fact is, Boozman is beating Halter by double-digits too and there's no prize for only losing by 15 instead of losing by 20. To be clear, yes, I believe that Halter was more electable than Lincoln, but to pretend that Halter's chances of victory were really that much better than Lincoln's doesn't do progressives well in the credibility department.
On the final point, well, frankly, I know that Kos means well, but there's a case to be made that Lincoln's derivatives language isn't really that good an idea. Just because something sounds good on paper and looks like it's putting the screws to the banks and everything which is evil, doesn't mean that it actually is or that this has somehow created better policy. Frankly, it's even arguable that this was good politics for just the general election, as everyone hates the banks and appearing to be tough on them just looks good. In addition there was a point made by a regular commenter on Swing State Project who goes by DCCyclone which I'd like to bring to light:
And, frankly, to a substantial extent it bothers me, because the singling out of Lincoln for demonization shows a big lack of perspective. Lincoln is from a most conservative state and the strongest anti-Obama state of any Democratic Senator up for reelection this year.I suppose this is about making an example out of her for the sake of doing so, and winning in politics does, ultimately, require demonizing the opponent. That's just a fact of political life, I accept that.
But if Halter wins tonight and goes on to lose by 20 to Boozman, I don't think the left benefits. ConservaDems don't feel pressured to be more responsive to the left, instead they just feel more tightly squeezed with a narrower needle to thread to win. The only way the left wins politically out of this is for Halter to win not only tonight but to pull off the massive upset and win in November. If that happens, then the intense emotional energy will have been fully vindicated, and I'll be proven a fucking moron. But it's hard to see a "Senator Halter" getting sworn in in January.
DCCyclone's point is a good one, what if Halter had won the primary? Maybe there would have been a polling bounce for him, but I doubt he'd even get a lead in that situation (or even close to it) and he'd probably return to where he was, 10-15 points behind Boozman which is almost certainly what the final result would have been. If that would have happened (hypothetically), it could easily by Democratic operatives to argue "see, this is what happens when you primary incumbents, you lose seats, you're no better than the Club for Growth!" (not to say that their point would be all that good, but it'd be pretty easy to make it, and suddenly the progressive groups who supported the primary look stupid for being successful). And that's really the main point, a loss for the progressives who backed Halter was probably inevitable no matter what, whether it would've been now or in November is sort of beside the point.
Update: Or what Nate Silver said.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Quick Primary Predictions (CA-Gov, CA-Sen, AR-Sen, IA-Gov, NV-Sen, NV-Gov
Political nerds of the world unite, today is a relatively busy day for primaries (see here for a run-down of all the elections happening today), and, to make up a bit for not posting any real predictions prior to today, I'm going to throw out a few predictions for the races I've been following (the Swing State Project should have a predictions thread, I highly recommend them for thorough coverage of the results tonight).
Elliot's predictions for posterity:
CA-Sen (Republicans)
Fiorina: 53%
Campbell: 27%
DeVore: 20%
Notes: I think DeVore will do somewhat better than polling suggests, but not enough to get anything outside of third place, and Fiorina's money is going to buy here a majority of Republican primary voters.
CA-Gov (Republicans)
Whitman: 64%
Poizner: 36%
Notes: Not much to say here, Whitman is going to deliver an epic drubbing to Poizner.
AR-Sen (Democratic Runoff)
Halter: 53%
Lincoln: 47%
Notes: The polling is rather limited, but my sense of the race is that Lt. Gov. Bill Halter will be able to pull off a decisive (but not huge) win over incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln. Some people think that there is the making of a total disaster for Lincoln, but I'm not really convinced (though I will note that runoffs can be really unpredictable, so Lincoln's drubbing or a decisive Lincoln win will not surprise me).
IA-Gov (Republicans)
Branstad: 44%
Vander Plaats: 32%
Roberts: 22%
Notes: Not much to see here, in a one-on-one race, former Governor Terry Branstad might have had trouble with Bob Vander Plaats, but the addition of State Sen. Rod Roberts has made it a lot more difficult for the not-Branstad voters to assert themselves.
NV-Sen (Republicans)
Angle: 39%
Lowden: 31%
Tarkanian: 30%
Notes: It amazes me that the Republicans were able to screw things up this badly against Harry Reid (who is about as popular as a root canal) but here we are. Former Republican Party Chair Sue Lowden (henceforth known as Chicken Lady) has collapsed in the polls because of her crazy position on health care (I'll trade you two chickens for a Chicken Pox shot) and this makes former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle very happy. Some have suggested that Lowden could finish third, but I think she'll barely squeak by Danny Tarkanian (who has held no elected office) for the simple reason that there's no real reason to back his candidacy (he's always been "the other person" in this race, and there's nothing that has happened to change that fact). Really, no matter what happens in this race, Harry Reid has got to be smiling right now.
NV-Gov (Republicans)
Sandoval: 47%
Gibbons: 34%
Montandon: 19%
Notes: While Harry Reid is going to be smiling, his son Rory Reid is probably going to be crying just a little bit as Former Attorney General Brian Sandoval is in a strong position to take out incumbent governor (and violent maniac) Jim Gibbons. I have no idea why Rory Reid decided that the smart move was to run for governor when his father was running for re-election, but there we are. As an aside, after this primary ends, I'm almost certainly going to move this race, as well as the Iowa gubernatorial race, to Leans Republican in my race ratings.
As a quick note, I think that in South Carolina, there will be a runoff between State Representative Nikki Haley and Attorney General Henry McMaster (Haley will get 45% and McMaster will get 23%)
Elliot's predictions for posterity:
CA-Sen (Republicans)
Fiorina: 53%
Campbell: 27%
DeVore: 20%
Notes: I think DeVore will do somewhat better than polling suggests, but not enough to get anything outside of third place, and Fiorina's money is going to buy here a majority of Republican primary voters.
CA-Gov (Republicans)
Whitman: 64%
Poizner: 36%
Notes: Not much to say here, Whitman is going to deliver an epic drubbing to Poizner.
AR-Sen (Democratic Runoff)
Halter: 53%
Lincoln: 47%
Notes: The polling is rather limited, but my sense of the race is that Lt. Gov. Bill Halter will be able to pull off a decisive (but not huge) win over incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln. Some people think that there is the making of a total disaster for Lincoln, but I'm not really convinced (though I will note that runoffs can be really unpredictable, so Lincoln's drubbing or a decisive Lincoln win will not surprise me).
IA-Gov (Republicans)
Branstad: 44%
Vander Plaats: 32%
Roberts: 22%
Notes: Not much to see here, in a one-on-one race, former Governor Terry Branstad might have had trouble with Bob Vander Plaats, but the addition of State Sen. Rod Roberts has made it a lot more difficult for the not-Branstad voters to assert themselves.
NV-Sen (Republicans)
Angle: 39%
Lowden: 31%
Tarkanian: 30%
Notes: It amazes me that the Republicans were able to screw things up this badly against Harry Reid (who is about as popular as a root canal) but here we are. Former Republican Party Chair Sue Lowden (henceforth known as Chicken Lady) has collapsed in the polls because of her crazy position on health care (I'll trade you two chickens for a Chicken Pox shot) and this makes former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle very happy. Some have suggested that Lowden could finish third, but I think she'll barely squeak by Danny Tarkanian (who has held no elected office) for the simple reason that there's no real reason to back his candidacy (he's always been "the other person" in this race, and there's nothing that has happened to change that fact). Really, no matter what happens in this race, Harry Reid has got to be smiling right now.
NV-Gov (Republicans)
Sandoval: 47%
Gibbons: 34%
Montandon: 19%
Notes: While Harry Reid is going to be smiling, his son Rory Reid is probably going to be crying just a little bit as Former Attorney General Brian Sandoval is in a strong position to take out incumbent governor (and violent maniac) Jim Gibbons. I have no idea why Rory Reid decided that the smart move was to run for governor when his father was running for re-election, but there we are. As an aside, after this primary ends, I'm almost certainly going to move this race, as well as the Iowa gubernatorial race, to Leans Republican in my race ratings.
As a quick note, I think that in South Carolina, there will be a runoff between State Representative Nikki Haley and Attorney General Henry McMaster (Haley will get 45% and McMaster will get 23%)
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