Political nerds of the world unite, today is a relatively busy day for primaries (see here for a run-down of all the elections happening today), and, to make up a bit for not posting any real predictions prior to today, I'm going to throw out a few predictions for the races I've been following (the Swing State Project should have a predictions thread, I highly recommend them for thorough coverage of the results tonight).
Elliot's predictions for posterity:
CA-Sen (Republicans)
Fiorina: 53%
Campbell: 27%
DeVore: 20%
Notes: I think DeVore will do somewhat better than polling suggests, but not enough to get anything outside of third place, and Fiorina's money is going to buy here a majority of Republican primary voters.
CA-Gov (Republicans)
Whitman: 64%
Poizner: 36%
Notes: Not much to say here, Whitman is going to deliver an epic drubbing to Poizner.
AR-Sen (Democratic Runoff)
Halter: 53%
Lincoln: 47%
Notes: The polling is rather limited, but my sense of the race is that Lt. Gov. Bill Halter will be able to pull off a decisive (but not huge) win over incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln. Some people think that there is the making of a total disaster for Lincoln, but I'm not really convinced (though I will note that runoffs can be really unpredictable, so Lincoln's drubbing or a decisive Lincoln win will not surprise me).
IA-Gov (Republicans)
Branstad: 44%
Vander Plaats: 32%
Roberts: 22%
Notes: Not much to see here, in a one-on-one race, former Governor Terry Branstad might have had trouble with Bob Vander Plaats, but the addition of State Sen. Rod Roberts has made it a lot more difficult for the not-Branstad voters to assert themselves.
NV-Sen (Republicans)
Angle: 39%
Lowden: 31%
Tarkanian: 30%
Notes: It amazes me that the Republicans were able to screw things up this badly against Harry Reid (who is about as popular as a root canal) but here we are. Former Republican Party Chair Sue Lowden (henceforth known as Chicken Lady) has collapsed in the polls because of her crazy position on health care (I'll trade you two chickens for a Chicken Pox shot) and this makes former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle very happy. Some have suggested that Lowden could finish third, but I think she'll barely squeak by Danny Tarkanian (who has held no elected office) for the simple reason that there's no real reason to back his candidacy (he's always been "the other person" in this race, and there's nothing that has happened to change that fact). Really, no matter what happens in this race, Harry Reid has got to be smiling right now.
NV-Gov (Republicans)
Sandoval: 47%
Gibbons: 34%
Montandon: 19%
Notes: While Harry Reid is going to be smiling, his son Rory Reid is probably going to be crying just a little bit as Former Attorney General Brian Sandoval is in a strong position to take out incumbent governor (and violent maniac) Jim Gibbons. I have no idea why Rory Reid decided that the smart move was to run for governor when his father was running for re-election, but there we are. As an aside, after this primary ends, I'm almost certainly going to move this race, as well as the Iowa gubernatorial race, to Leans Republican in my race ratings.
As a quick note, I think that in South Carolina, there will be a runoff between State Representative Nikki Haley and Attorney General Henry McMaster (Haley will get 45% and McMaster will get 23%)
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